What are the highlights of the next Hall of Fame vote? “4 empty frames” holds the key

On January 26, Japan time, the results of the National Baseball Hall of Fame vote were announced, and David Ortiz, who was active as the main hitter of the Red Sox, was inducted into the Hall of Fame in the first year of qualification. In the next 2023 vote, Carlos Beltran with a total of 435 home runs and 312 stolen bases, Francisco Rodriguez with a total of 437 saves will appear for the first time. The names of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, and Sammy Sosa, who completed the 10-year qualification period, will disappear from the voting paper, so who are the reporters who voted for these four people? It seems that the point is to use it.

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Bertrand is the only player in the first appearance group who may be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Other candidates, including Rodriguez, who holds a major record for season 62 saves, have a total WAR (baseball reference version) of less than 40, so a line with a 5% vote rate that can connect hopes from the next time onwards. If it can be exceeded, it will be like a character. With a total of 2725 hits, 435 home runs, and 312 stolen bases, Bertrand has a WAR of over 70 and is well-deserved of being inducted into the Hall of Fame, but is considered one of the masterminds of the Astros’ fraudulent signature theft. Similar to Bonds et al.’S steroid group, there is a high possibility that the sign theft problem will be a shackle and the vote rate will be sluggish.

In the 2022 vote, Scott Rolen (52.9% last time → 63.2% this time) in the fifth year of qualification, Todd Helton (44.9% → 52.0%) in the fourth year, and Billy Wagner (46.4%) in the seventh year. % → 51.0%), Andrew Jones (33.9% → 41.1%) and others in the same 5th year steadily increased the voting rate. Due to the rule that only 10 people can vote, it is possible that reporters who avoided voting for these players will vote using the slots given to Bonds and Clements, so the vote rate will increase further from the next time onwards. Can be expected. The next candidate for the Hall of Fame will be Lauren, not Bertrand.

In addition, Jeff Kent (351 home runs as a second baseman out of a total of 377 home runs), who has recorded the highest number of home runs in history as a second baseman, will be in the 10th year of the final year of qualification. It reached the 30% level for the first time at 32.4% last time, but this time it has only increased slightly to 32.7%, and it is difficult to enter the Hall of Fame in the press vote. After completing the 10-year qualification period, it is likely that he will entrust his hopes to the selection of the era committee.

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